Market Commentaries

All eyes on the bond market.

The scale of the tariffs introduced by the administration shocked investors, sparking a roller coaster of a week for stock markets.

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs…”

The advice offered by Rudyard Kipling’s poem “If—” resonated last week. A sharp escalation in trade tensions sparked a stock market downturn despite news that the United States economy created far more jobs in March than economists had expected, reported Lucia Mutikani of Reuters.

Late Wednesday, President Trump announced tariffs on countries around the world. The tariffs were significantly larger than anticipated, and stock markets immediately moved lower. Over two days, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index lost about $5 trillion in market capitalization, reported Lynn Thomasson of Bloomberg.

If you read the financial press, you may have seen the terms “risk-on” and “risk-off”.  When investing, there is a risk-return spectrum. Stocks typically have higher risk and higher return potential than high-quality bonds. High-quality bonds have lower risk and lower return potential than stocks, although they typically have higher risk and higher return potential than cash.

The market whisperer…

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left the federal funds rate unchanged, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell soothed markets. He explained that conditions in the labor market were broadly in balance and inflation had eased significantly over the past two years. Overall, the possibility of recession, while rising, remained low.

Markets rallied following his comments.

A correction and a bounce.

Last week, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index moved into correction territory. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) was already in a correction, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) was close, reported Paul R. LaMonica of Barron’s.

A correction occurs when the value of an index drops 10 percent below its most recent peak. The S&P 500 correction occurred remarkably quickly. Just three weeks ago, the index was at a record high amid easing inflation pressures and solid earnings growth.

In fact, from December 15 through March 6, the number of companies mentioning the word “recession” on earnings calls was the lowest it had been in more than five years, reported John Butters of FactSet. There is another word that was mentioned frequently on earnings calls though: tariffs.

What do weather and investing have in common?

From 1991 to 2020, the average temperature of the United States was 54.7° Fahrenheit. Of course, that doesn’t mean the temperature in every state on every day was 54.7°F. The weather varied dramatically from place to place and month to month.

The same is true of investment averages. At the end of February, the average annual total return* for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index over the past 10 years was 12.98 percent. That doesn’t mean the S&P 500 returned 12.98 percent every year – it didn’t. The index’s total return varied dramatically from year to year.

At the end of last year, economists believed the chance of a recession in 2025 was relatively low. In December, economist Torsten Sløk wrote, “The outlook for the US economy remains strong with no signs of a major slowdown going into 2025.”

The economy has not been performing as expected, though.

For the last three weeks, sentiment among individual investors has been leaning bearish. Last week, 40.5 percent of investors in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey were feeling pessimistic about the direction of stocks over the next six months. That was an improvement from the prior week’s reading when 47.3 percent of participants were bearish.

Why are stock markets wary of tariffs?

In two of the last three weeks, tariff announcements led to late week stock market sell-offs. Stocks quickly recovered lost value, but uncertainty about the administration’s trade policy and the potential impact of that policy on U.S. companies remained. That’s likely to be the case until it becomes clear whether the Trump administration sees tariffs as a negotiating tactic or a means to cover the cost of extending 2017 tax cuts.

Optimism headed south on Friday.

After rising for most of the week, stock markets lost momentum last Friday as economic data raised doubts about further Federal Reserve rate cuts, reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg. Late in the day, President Trump announced new tariffs would be imposed this week, and stocks dropped into negative territory.

Wait! What just happened?

Last week, investors were inundated with market-moving data and news. Stock markets gyrated as investors tried to process everything that was occurring. Here’s some of what happened.

What moves financial markets? The short answer is: Lots of things!

Almost one hundred years ago, Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd wrote, “the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion.” Today, the same holds true. Stock prices are influenced by many factors.

Last week, investors breathed a sigh of relief when the latest price data showed core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, moved lower in December.

Investors has been worried because economists forecasted inflation would be stickier in December, reported Frank Lee of Morningstar. If that proved out, the Fed might have stopped lowering the federal funds rate, which would have had adverse implications for company performance and stock prices. So when core inflation dropped to 3.2 percent year over year, investors celebrated.

Some think the celebration might be premature.

Bond yields are rising—and they have investors’ attention.

Last year, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the federal funds rate by one percent. (The federal funds rate is the interest rate the Fed charges banks. It influences other interest rates.) This shift in Fed policy made a lot of people happy.

Hello, 2025!

As we head into a new year, it can be helpful to look back at the previous year—and 2024 was a doozy. Stocks in the United States delivered a double-double—posting double-digit gains for a second year in a row. That kind of performance is a relative rarity and has only occurred nine times over the last 96 years, according to Tony DeSpirito of BlackRock.

Consumers were more optimistic. Investors were less so.

As we neared the end of 2024, U.S. consumers were feeling optimistic. Every month the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers conducts about 600 interviews with American households, asking interviewees about their personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions.

Last week, markets were about as happy as a toddler opening a gift they didn’t like.

The first upsetting event followed the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s final policy meeting for 2024. The Fed met expectations by lowering its policy rate one-quarter of a percentage point, as many economists had anticipated. The federal funds rate is now a full percentage point lower than it was at the start of September.

How high can U.S. stocks fly?

The U.S. stock market has delivered exceptional performance over the past few years and remains on track to deliver solid returns in 2024.

U.S. stocks thrive amid turmoil.

The performance of the U.S. stock market is striking. Last week, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 closed at a record high for the 57^th time this year, reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg.

United States stock markets are serving another cup of cheer this year. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index returned more than more than 24 percent in 2023. This year, it was up 26.5 percent through the end of November. It’s possible 2024 will end up in Wall Street’s bull market hall of fame.

The post-election rally resumed.

Investors shook off concerns about interest rates and inflation, and U.S. stocks climbed higher last week. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index gained every day last week, and the rally wasn’t limited to a few popular stocks: 425 of the companies in the Index finished the week higher, according to Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told business leaders in Dallas that the performance of the United States economy has been “remarkably good,” better than any major economy in the world, which gives the Fed “the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”

Powell’s comments caused investors to reassess the likely pace of rate cuts. As they did, the probability of a December rate cut fell sharply.

Stock markets celebrated the results of the presidential election. Bond markets were less enthusiastic.

For the American economy, a soft landing happens when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool the economy and push inflation lower—and achieves its goal without causing a recession and significantly higher unemployment. It’s not an easy task.

So, exactly how well is the U.S. doing?

Financial markets appear to have pre-election jitters.

The United States election is less than two weeks away. The candidates are neck and neck. The outcome remains uncertain. And expectations for volatility have been rising, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finishing last week at 20.33.

The bull market in stocks charged past its two-year birthday on October 12. “This unique bull market is still young relative to history and, for now, supported by relatively healthy breadth and broadening participation,” wrote Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon of Schwab.

One factor in the U.S. stock market’s rise has been the American economy’s surprising strength as it recovers from a surge in inflation. Our economy is “the envy of the world” and “has left other rich countries in the dust,” reported Simon Rabinovitch and Henry Curr of The Economist. “Expect that to continue,” they wrote.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed above 5,800 for the first time—and that’s not all.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also notched a record high last week—and all three major U.S. stock indices ended the first full week of October with gains of more than one percent.

There was good economic news, too.

Last week, the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher after the U.S. employment report showed 254,000 jobs were created in September. That was well above expectations. The number of jobs created in July and August were revised higher, too. Yields on many maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher last week.

The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index hit a new all-time high last week.

The S&P 500 has had quite a year. Despite a sharp downturn in August when investor confidence was ruffled by concerns about economic growth, the Index was up about 20 percent, year-to-date, at the end of last week. The gains were widespread with all sectors of the Index participating, according to data from Fidelity.

Rates moved lower and stocks moved higher.

In 2022, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) began raising interest rates as it battled high rates of inflation. That year prices rose 8 percent, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. In 2023, prices increased more slowly (4.1 percent), but still advanced at a pace that was well above the Fed’s target of two percent. Last month, prices rose 2.5 percent annualized. And last week, the Fed decided it is time to change course.

There was a lot of good news last week!

Inflation continued to trend lower. The Consumer Price Index showed that inflation was 2.5 percent year over year (yoy) in August. That’s lower than economists had expected, and a significant decline from July’s 2.9 percent.

Food and energy prices have been falling faster than some other prices because the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, showed a 3.2 percent increase over the last 12 months. The biggest price increases were for shelter (+5.2 percent yoy) and automobile insurance (+16.5 percent yoy).

Investing in September can be like biting into a jelly doughnut and finding boiled cabbage—full of unwelcome surprises.

“History suggests September is the worst month of the year in terms of stock-market performance,” reported Isabel Wang of Morningstar. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index “has generated an average monthly decline of 1.2%…dating back to 1928, according to Dow Jones Market Data.”

After gyrating wildly throughout the month, major U.S. stock indexes finished August higher.

Despite a lot of uncertainty and some dramatic ups and downs, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index rose 2.3 percent in August, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.8 percent to close at a record high. It was the fourth consecutive month of gains for both indexes, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.

The near future is more predictable than the distant future.

Last year, the St. Louis Federal Reserve explored the accuracy of recession forecasts. They found that short-term predictions about whether there would be a recession in the subsequent quarter were fairly accurate. However, projections for economic growth a year ahead were far less accurate. The researchers concluded, “Even though forecasts can help, we must live with significant uncertainty about future economic conditions.”

The best week of the year?

After two weeks of slow and jolting market performance, a bounty of positive news calmed investors and lifted stock markets higher last week.

“Investors seem to have come to the realization that while the economy may be in fact slowing, the Federal Reserve is going to take action to address that by cutting interest rates on Sept. 18…with a September rate cut a near certainty, the mood in the market has turned on a dime,” reported Paul R. La Monica of Barron’s.

Markets were gripped by August jitters.

Last week, financial markets were volatile. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose to the highest level in four years before cooling down. “While spikes in the VIX often coincide with deep market sell-offs, they can also be short-lived and precede a rebound for stocks,” reported Jesse Pound of CNBC.

Stock markets swelled and dropped like waves at the Olympic surfing competition in Tahiti.

It is often said that markets hate uncertainty. There was a lot of uncertainty last week, and it showed. “The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index soared 3 [percent] on Wednesday and then retreated almost that much on Thursday, before paring the decline at the close, for its biggest up-to-down rotation since May 2022. The S&P 500 Index sank 1.4 [percent], just one day after rallying 1.6 [percent],” reported Alexandra Semenova, Esha Dey, Carmen Reinicke, and Natalia Kniazhevich of Bloomberg.

Americans may be witnessing something remarkable.

Earlier this year, we had the relatively rare opportunity to view a total solar eclipse – when the moon passes between the sun and the Earth, blocking the sun completely – as it crossed numerous states. Now, we may see the United States’ economy experience a soft landing – when the Federal Reserve raises rates to fight inflation and does not cause a recession.

The rate cut stars are aligning.

For the last year, borrowing costs in the United States have remained relatively high as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) waited for economic data to show that inflation was on track to reach the Fed’s two percent target. Now, we may finally be on the cusp of lower rates.

Will deflation continue?

In May, Pew Research asked Americans about the biggest problems facing our nation. The top three answers were:

1. Inflation;
2. The ability of Democrats and Republicans to work together; and
3. The affordability of health care.

Despite some volatility, stock markets have been buoyant in 2024.

Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI), optimism about inflation, and expectations that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin to lower rates this year have helped global and U.S. stock markets, overall, push higher in 2024. Share prices increased more slowly in the second quarter, though.

On Friday, one of the Fed’s favored measures of inflation – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index – showed that headline inflation was flat in May. Both headline inflation and core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, were up 2.6 percent year over year. That’s a significant improvement from May 2023 when headline inflation was 3.8 percent year over year, and core inflation was 4.6 percent. The Fed’s target is 2.0 percent.

Are we at an inflection point?

The transition to renewable energy has been moving forward and may be reaching an inflection point. In 2023, global renewable energy capacity increased by almost 50 percent, reported the International Energy Agency (IEA). Renewable capacity reached all-time highs in the United States, Europe and Brazil. However, the leader in new capacity is China. In 2023, the country “commissioned as much solar PV [photovoltaic] as the entire world did in 2022,” stated the IEA’s Renewables 2023 report.¹

Inflation is lower – and so are some retail prices.

There was a lot of good news last week about the cost of products and services in the United States.

Another record high for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index!

Last week, the S&P 500 Index hit its 25^th record high for 2024. Investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence helped drive the index to a new high. About 30 percent of the Index is information technology stocks

Overall, May was a good month for investors.

The adage, “Sell in May and go away,” would have been poor advice last month. Major stock indices in the United States finished the month higher. Connor Smith of Barron’s reported:

• The Nasdaq Composite was up 6.9 percent for May,
• The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 4.8 percent, and
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 2.3 percent higher.

Perception versus reality.

A recent Harris poll, conducted on behalf of The Guardian newspaper, found that there is some confusion about the state of the American economy and U.S. stock market performance. A significant proportion of the Americans who participated think the economy and the stock market are in rough shape.

Reading the economic tea leaves.

Tasseography practitioners read tea leaves to forecast the future. Some economic data serve a similar purpose. Policymakers, central bankers, economists, and investors look at leading economic indicators to forecast where the economy may be headed.

Higher rates are doing what they’re supposed to do.

Last week, Federal Reserve officials spoke about keeping the federal funds rate higher until it becomes clear that inflation will reach the Fed’s two percent target rate.

What will the Federal Reserve do?

Uncertainty about the direction and timing of Fed rate cuts is causing stock markets in the United States to charge and retreat. U.S. stocks rallied for five consecutive months (anticipating rate cuts early in 2024) before retreating in April after higher-than-anticipated inflation suggested the Fed might delay any rate reductions.

The economy appears to be slowing down.

Last week, many investors were focused on economic data. The Personal Consumption report offers information about Americans’ income and spending over the previous month. It includes one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.

Investors have been recalibrating their expectations.

There is a lot going on in the world that could affect the value of financial markets – wars, tensions between major powers, a strong dollar, and rising oil prices – just to name a few. Last week, it was Federal Reserve policy. The possibility that the Fed might keep rates higher for longer shook investors, reported Naomi Rovnick of Reuters.

Inflation and geopolitics and earnings. Oh, my!

It was a rough week for stock markets. “The S&P 500 closed 1.5% lower on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.6%. Every S&P 500 sector closed lower—and just about 40 stocks in the index finished the day with gains,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.

The bull charged from October 2023 through March 2024.

Last week, it took a breather. Optimistic may be the best word to describe the first quarter of 2024. From the start of the year, investors were confident that an economic soft landing in the United States was possible.

What do dieters have in common with the Federal Reserve?

If you’ve ever dieted, you may be familiar with the weight-loss plateau. Many people experience steady progress. The bathroom scale moves lower week by week – until it doesn’t – and that can be discouraging.

The central banks have spoken.

No one expected the United States Federal Reserve to announce a rate change last week – and it didn’t. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the actions of other central banks led to new records being set in stock markets around the world, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s.

Here’s the tea on stock markets and presidential elections.

Last week, a slew of headlines mentioned stock market bubbles and frothy valuations. The implication was that markets might be headed lower because they’ve risen so high.

The week got off to a good start…

In testimony before House and Senate committees, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell noted that prices had been falling and unemployment rates remained quite low. As a result, he expected the Fed to begin lowering the federal funds rate in 2024.

The bull market is alive and well.

“We know what investors are thinking,” reported Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s. “The gains can keep coming, driven by an economy that is neither too hot nor too cold…The economy is growing, but only moderately, and the Federal Reserve can keep thinking about when it can start cutting interest rates…This dynamic is why nobody wants to miss out on the rally—and why they think it can keep going. A recent survey from Investors Intelligence shows the number of bulls outnumbered their bearish counterparts by the widest margin since late 2021.”

Optimism abounds!

Enthusiasm for everything related to artificial intelligence (AI) drove a global stock market rally last week. Equity markets in the United States, Europe, and Japan hit all-time highs after a leading chipmaker reported better-than-expected earnings and an extraordinary surge in demand for its artificial intelligence-targeted processors, wrote Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg.

Don’t fight the Fed.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States. A longstanding bit of investment wisdom is: Don’t fight the Fed. It means that investors should align their strategies with the Fed’s monetary policy. Economic growth is influenced by Fed policy, and stock markets tend to reflect the economy, rising when it grows and falling when it contracts.

China is out of favor with investors.

For decades, China was among the fastest-growing economies in the world. Its real gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services it produces, grew by about nine percent a year, on average, from 1978 through 2022, according to The World Bank. However, the pace of economic growth in China slowed over the last decade and dropped sharply during the pandemic.

We’ve been hearing a lot about layoffs.

Last week, the January 2024 Challenger Report found that employers based in the United States cut more than 82,000 jobs in January. That’s a lot. In December 2023, about 35,000 layoffs were announced. The January job cuts were concentrated in a few industries, and the reasons for the cuts included companies restructuring to lower costs and reorienting toward artificial intelligence.

Even better than expected!

The United States economy is not performing the way anyone thought it would. Instead of tipping into a recession last year, it crushed expectations. Gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services produced in the country, expanded 2.5 percent, after inflation, for the year.

Are you feeling optimistic or pessimistic?

Consumers are a force to be reckoned with – and we’re all consumers. We buy coats and tweezers, electricity and bread, screens and fishing poles. We download apps and games and educational materials. As consumers, we are vital to the American economy. In fact, consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy when it’s measured using gross domestic product or GDP.

Is inflation retreating?

Last week, we received a lot of information about inflation. Some seemed to support the idea that inflation was sticky, meaning it wasn’t moving lower, while other data suggested inflation was in retreat.

And we’re off…to a slow start.

Last week, investors appeared to suffer from a New Year’s hangover. The culprit was too much optimism.

After its December meeting, with inflation easing and the U.S. economy remaining resilient, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated that three rate cuts were possible in 2024. Assuming the Fed drops rates by 0.25 percentage points each time, the effective federal funds rate would fall by 0.75 percentage points to about 4.5 percent by the end of this yea

2023 was a big year for U.S. stocks.

The story of 2023 has its roots in 2022, when the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index lost almost 19.5 percent amid rising inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. As 2022 came to a close, many on Wall Street predicted further pain in the new year. Economists forecasted a 70 percent chance of recession in 2023, and consumer and investor confidence were both low.

If all you wanted for Christmas was two percent inflation, you’re in luck!

Barring unforeseen events, it appears the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) is on the cusp of accomplishing a feat many thought impossible – reducing inflation without causing a recession.

From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed raised the federal funds rate 5.25 percent – the most aggressive increases in decades, reported Felix Richter of Statista. There was considerable skepticism about the Fed’s ability to bring inflation down to its 2 percent target, especially as prices continued to rise, with inflation peaking at 9.1 percent annualized in June of 2022.

Have rates peaked?

Last week, at its final policy meeting for 2023, the United States Federal Reserve indicated that rates may have peaked. After the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said: “As we approach the end of the year, it is natural to look back on the progress that has been made toward our dual mandate objectives. Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That is very good news…

Still exceeding expectations.

Last week, the United States Treasury market rallied. Yields fell and bond prices rose as some bond market investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve will soon change course.

We’re cycling along.

It’s easy to forget that economic activity tends to move in cycles. A full cycle, known as the business cycle, typically includes four stages:

• Contraction
• Trough
• Expansion
• Peak

In November, investors were more optimistic than consumers.

At the start of November, investors were decidedly bearish. During the week of November 1, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey found that about 50 percent of respondents were pessimistic about the prospects for stocks over the next six months, and about 24 percent were bullish. The current historic averages are 31 percent bearish and 37.5 percent bullish. (The remainder are neutral.)

Is it done? (We’re not talking about the turkey.)

Last week, investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could be done raising rates – and that it might even begin to lower them. As conviction about the possibility of rate cuts increased, stock and bond markets rallied, reported Koh Gui Qing and Dhara Ranasinghe of Reuters.

Earnings grew in the third quarter.

Four times a year, during earnings season, publicly traded companies report how well they performed during the previous quarter. The strength of corporate earnings – also known as bottom-line profits – is one of the economic indicators that investors watch closely.

Will there be a year-end rally?

Last week, there was a lot of speculation about whether the United States will see a year-end stock market rally. Some say yes, and some say no.

The Mark Twain Effect?

Historically, economic theory was based on the idea that financial decisions were grounded in rational thought. In recent years, behavioral economists have recognized that people don’t always behave rationally. In fact, research has found that investors like shortcuts that help simplify decision-making. While rules of thumb can be helpful, it’s important to use common sense. Some investment theories are a bit wacky, such as:

Stay calm and consider the big picture.

Today, investors have a myriad of worries that are creating tremendous uncertainty. A September Investopedia survey found investors are concerned about how their investments may be affected by many factors, #1 is inflation and #2 is the upcoming election.

Markets were resilient.

Last week, investors had a lot to process – geopolitics, inflation, consumer sentiment, the possibility of government shutdown – and markets were volatile. Toward the end of the week, some investors were reassured when earnings season kicked off with reports showing major banks posted stronger-than-expected profits during the third quarter. Here’s a brief look at what happened during the week:

Financial markets lost ground during the third quarter.

While year-to-date returns for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index remain above the historic average, which was 10.24 percent, including dividends, from 1973 to 2022, the rally in U.S. stocks stalled during the third quarter of 2023, reported Lewis Krauskopf, Ankika Biswas and Shashwat Chauhan of Reuters.

Inflation is slowing but consumers aren’t feeling it.

In August, for the first time in two years, inflation (excluding volatile food and energy costs) dropped below four percent. Last week, one of the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s favored inflation measures – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – indicated that prices rose 3.9 percent, year-over-year, in August 2023. That’s an improvement from January, when prices rose by 4.9 percent, year-over-year, but it remains above the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

How high will they go?

Just as the market anticipated, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose not to raise interest rates last week. However, Fed officials made it clear another rate increase might be necessary before the end of 2023 as continued economic strength, higher energy prices, robust consumer spending, and rising wages in a strong labor market have kept upward pressure on inflation.

Adding new ingredients to the economic blender.

The performance of United States economy in 2023 has been as unexpected as a lentil-avocado-cinnamon smoothie – a tasty surprise. Last week, economic data suggested the Federal Reserve may need to do more to slow the economy. The consumer price index showed inflation edging higher, wholesale inflation was higher than expected (largely due to higher energy prices), and retail sales were healthy.

All the work, work, work.

2023 has been a remarkable year so far. It has, “confounded economists, humbled forecasters, and rewarded investors. Despite a rapid rise in interest rates, the U.S. economy continues to grow. Inflation has fallen – if not quite to desired levels – and stocks have entered a bull market, with the S&P 500 gaining 17% year to date and the Nasdaq Composite up more than 30%,” reported Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s.

Lowering inflation.

If you’ve ever waited in traffic while the center section of a bridge lifts to allow ships and sailboats to pass underneath, you may have noticed the enormous counterweight that lowers as the bridge moves higher. When the boats have passed, the counterweight rises, and the bridge lowers back into place.

Becalmed.

The Chinese government’s zero-COVID policy took the wind from the sails of its economy. When the government finally ended the policy earlier this year, many economists anticipated that pent-up consumer demand would refill China’s economic sails, lifting the global economy, reported Malcolm Scott of Bloomberg. Instead, China’s economy is in an economic doldrum, recovering far more slowly than anyone anticipated. As a result, economists have steadily lowered 2023 growth forecasts for the country, reported Yahoo Finance and Diane King Hall.

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Higher bond yields may be good for income investors – and not so good for stock markets.

After more than a decade of near-zero interest rates, the “free money” era – a time when people and businesses could borrow money and repay it with very low (or no) interest – may be over.

Consumer sentiment is a lagging indicator. It’s also a contrarian indicator.

After rising sharply in June and July, consumer sentiment leveled off this month. The preliminary August reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 71.2. That’s slightly below July’s reading, although it’s up 22.3 percent year-over-year, and up 42 percent from its all-time low of 50 (June 2022). The historic average for the Index is 86.

An unwelcome surprise.

Last week, Fitch Ratings startled markets by lowering the credit rating of United States Treasuries from AAA to AA+. It was the second rating agency to downgrade U.S. Treasuries; Standard & Poor’s cut its rating to AA+ in 2011, reported Benjamin Purvis and Simon Kennedy of Bloomberg.

Central bank palooza!

While music lovers attended concerts and festivals across the United States, central banks had a lollapalooza of their own. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) led things off last Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday.

Better than expected.

In January of this year, the Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey collected and shared investors’ expectations for stock markets. Survey participants were generally a gloomy group. Seventy percent believed the United States stock market would move lower in 2023, and most indicated the drop would happen in the latter half of the year, according to Jess Menton and Liz Capo McCormick of Bloomberg.

The Markets

Disinflation was in the air!

To the great relief of the Federal Reserve, the American economy has been experiencing “disinflation,” which is a slowdown in the rate of inflation.

Markets are playing Federal Reserve (Fed) Clue.

Last week, investors parsed the monthly Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for clues about whether the Fed will raise the federal funds rate at its next meeting or leave the rate unchanged, reported Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s. The Fed has been aggressively raising the rate to slow the pace of inflation. Higher rates typically lead to slower economic growth and fewer jobs, so the employment report offers some signals about the Fed’s progress so far and what may come next.

Showing remarkable resilience.

Throughout the first half of 2023, the U.S. economy and financial markets proved to be resilient – and so did investors. U.S. stock markets moved higher amid enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and expectations that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle might be near an end. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index entered a bull market and the Nasdaq Composite Index delivered its best first-half performance in 40 years, gaining more than 30 percent over the period, reported Barron’s.

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Express is traveling fast.

Investors are enthusiastic about AI. Late last year, an AI research lab introduced a chatbot that could answer questions – and people were enthralled. Within two months of its introduction, more than 100 million people had engaged with the technology, reported David Curry of Business of Apps. It wasn’t long before AI platforms that could generate images and audio, and help with coding were released.

Rebalancing ahead!

There is one decision all investors should make: how to allocate the money they’re investing. Asset allocation decisions are usually based on a myriad of factors: expected returns, potential volatility, and appetite for risk, among others.

Leaping over the wall of worry.

The “wall of worry” is an obstacle – or set of obstacles – that investors face. This year, the wall reached a considerable height as inflation, the War in Ukraine, United States-China tensions, slower earnings growth, the high cost of residential real estate, low demand for commercial real estate, tightening credit conditions, and other issues weighed on investor confidence and consumer sentiment.

As Gomer Pyle used to say, “Surprise, surprise, surprise!”

Gomer Pyle USMC was a popular American sitcom in the 1960s. It focused on a naïve, do-gooding auto mechanic from Mayberry RFD who joined the military. Gomer Pyle, the much-loved main character, was known for catchphrases such as shazam, golly, and surprise, surprise, surprise.

It’s a three-ring circus!

For centuries people have embraced the circus. Enjoying the sticky fluff of cotton candy while elephants, clowns and trapeze artists perform in the spotlights. Merriam Webster Dictionary defines the experience as wild, confusing, engrossing and entertaining.

Investors aren’t happy, but stocks are up.

If you ever participated in a fantasy football league, you may have experienced a run on a position during your draft. One person picks a kicker or defense mid-round and, suddenly, almost everyone rushes to follow suit. A similar occurrence may be happening in the United States stock market.

Brace yourself! The debt ceiling standoff continues. 

Consumers aren’t optimistic. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a six-month low in May, dropping 9.1 percent month-to-month.

The labor market just keeps growing…and growing…

Last week, the April employment report for the United States arrived. It showed that unemployment dropped to the lowest level in more than 50 years – 3.4 percent.

Get real! 

Despite more than a year of aggressive Federal Reserve rate increases, the United States economy is still growing, albeit more slowly. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S. economy – grew by 5.1 percent over the first quarter.

It’s earnings season – the time when publicly traded companies report on how profitable they were during the first quarter of 2023. So far, reports suggest that companies listed on United States stock exchanges did better than many had anticipated.

Keep your eye on the big picture.

Last week, there was nothing too surprising in economic and financial news.

Ambiguous images.

Some illustrations are optical illusions. When two people view the picture, they may see completely different images. A good example is Rubin’s Vase. One viewer may see a vase, while another sees two faces.

Perhaps we should call this a pushmi-pullyu market.

The first quarter of 2023 brought Dr. Dolittle’s pushmi-pullyu – the rarest animal of all – to mind. It is the offspring of goat-antelopes and unicorns, and has a head at each end of its body. The pushmi-pullyu’s unusual anatomy allows it to easily and rapidly change direction, making it difficult to catch.

What’s your jam?

When you think of fun, are you running an Arctic marathon? Biking to your favorite burger place? Gaming with friends online? Each has inherent risk: Polar bears and hypothermia, traffic and flat tires, and viruses and identity theft. Those who enjoy these activities, understand the possible risks and manage them.

Unknowns and uncertainty.

Financial markets were volatile last week as investors parsed the risks around bank closures, central banks offered additional protections for depositors, and regulators took a harder look at bank balance sheets.

Thrown for a loop.

Early last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent. If economic data continues to come in hot, he said, then it’s likely the Fed will raise rates higher than expected and keep them higher for longer.

Sibling discord.

Stocks and bonds are two of the better-known asset classes in the family of potential investments. Last week, they were in opposition.

Is it good news or bad news?

The answer depends on your perspective. Last week, we learned…

Brace for a bumpy ride.

There were some unwelcome surprises in last week’s economic data that caused markets to reassess expectations for 2023. For example: Inflation didn’t fall as fast as expected.

This time may be different…or it may not be.

There has been a lot of speculation about how the Federal Reserve’s policies will affect the United States economy. Economists have differing opinions about whether the country is headed for:

What do Samuel Clemens (a.k.a. Mark Twain) and the current economic expansion have in common?

Author and humorist Twain was prematurely reported to be dead. It first happened in 1897. Twain was on a speaking tour in London when rumors that he had fallen ill and died began to circulate. Then, about a decade later, The New York Times reported that a yacht Twain was on had sunk.

The vicious cycle of inflation.

Last week, we learned that pay increases at central banks in many parts of the world won’t keep pace with inflation. As a result, their employees may not be able to maintain the standards of living they had before inflation began rising. For example, at the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) the maximum pay increase was 5.1 percent for 2022.

“It’s hard to be a contrarian for very long these days because the consensus seems to change so quickly,” opined Ed Yardeni via LinkedIn last week.

We’ve certainly seen a shift in investors’ preferences during the first few weeks of this year.

Bullish or bearish?

After last year’s geopolitical turmoil, economic malaise, and tumultuous stock market decline, many financial professionals – from investors to asset managers – have strong opinions about what will happen in 2023.

It’s being called the “Goldilocks” report.

Last Friday, we learned that demand for workers in the United States remained strong in 2022. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5 percent in December. (It was 3.7 percent in November.) That brought U.S. unemployment back to where it was before the pandemic – at the lowest level in more than 50 years, reported Megan Cassella of Barron’s.

It’s finally over.

2022 was a dismal year for financial markets. Major United States stock indices moved lower, trimming or eliminating the previous year’s gains.

What a year!

In some ways, it feels as though we lived through several years in 2022. The onslaught of events included, “The first major European war since the 1990s, unprecedented sanctions, energy-price mayhem, bail-outs, global interest rates rising at their fastest pace in four decades, a faltering Chinese economy, an overheating American one, housing markets looking peaky across the rich world, [and] a crypto blow-up for the ages…,”

Bad news is bad news, once again.

For months, investors have cheered bad economic news. When the United States economy showed signs of weakness, stock markets often reflected investor enthusiasm. The thinking was that bad economic news would persuade the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes. Inflation would slide lower, and recession would be avoided.

Last week, there was a shift in attitude.

What comes next?

The U.S. stock market tends to be a forward-looking vehicle. Investors make decisions today based on what they think may be ahead for the economy, and how economic change may affect the companies they’re considering for investment. Currently, key questions include:

What will it take to slow this economy down?

In 2001, railway workers slowed a runaway train in Ohio by latching a second engine to the back of the locomotive and applying the brakes. In all, the train traveled sixty-six miles over two hours, decelerating from a maximum speed of 47 miles per hour to 10 miles per hour before workers regained control of it, according to CNN.

There was a shift in the winds of monetary policy.

Last week, it became clear the Federal Reserve (Fed) had softened its hawkish stance. The minutes of the central bank’s November policy meeting indicated the Fed was likely to slow the pace of rate hikes soon. There was a caveat, though. The minutes noted:

Thanksgiving and football go together like turkey and stuffing.

For some families, though, this year may be more like a turducken, stuffed with American football and the sport the rest of the world knows as football (soccer). The men’s World Cup, which is played every four years for national glory, the Jules Rimet trophy, and millions of dollars in prize money, began on Sunday and will end on December 18.

Last week was remarkable for many reasons.

One reason is that sky watchers around the world had an opportunity to see a total lunar eclipse. The moon, Earth and sun aligned, causing the moon to appear crimson. We won’t see another total lunar eclipse for three years, reported Denise Chow of NBC News.

It’s the lag time.

To no one’s surprise, the Federal Reserve continued to battle inflation last week, raising the federal funds rate for the fourth time this year, reported Claire Ballentine of Bloomberg.

Some companies are doing better than others – a lot better.

It’s earnings season; the time when companies share how well they performed during the previous quarter.

Markets turned – again.

Markets continue to be volatile. Last week, stocks headed north. Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s reported the change of direction reflected investors’ desire for the market to finally hit bottom.

We’re not there yet.

Investors are understandably eager for the stock market to hit bottom. Some hoped it happened last week, but it did not.

Despite the Fed’s rate hikes, last week the Consumer Price Index showed the annual rate for headline inflation was 8.2 percent in September.

Last week, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied oil producers like Russia, chose to cut production by two million barrels a day. The stated goal is to keep crude oil prices above $90 a barrel. The production cut, which will push gasoline and other prices higher, complicates efforts to fight inflation, reported Salma El Wardany and colleagues at Bloomberg.

The third quarter marked a change in attitude.

So far, 2022 has been a tough year for investing. We’ve experienced an unusual phenomenon – the simultaneous decline of stock and bond markets. Throughout the third quarter, investors’ concerns focused on global instability, rising prices and the possibility that central bank efforts to tame inflation would cause economic growth to falter.

Central bank tightening sparked recession fears.

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the federal funds rate for the fifth time this year. During 2022, the Fed has lifted its benchmark rate from near zero to 3.12 percent. Fed policymakers indicated that they expect to raise the rate again this year. That’s going to make borrowing more expensive as rates on credit cards, home mortgages and business loans increase.

It’s open to interpretation.

Jackson Pollock was an action painter. He poured, dropped, and dripped paint onto horizontal canvases. Some people look at his work and wonder why it’s highly valued. Others find deep meaning in the paintings. For instance, Pollock’s Convergence is a collage of splattered colors that has been described as “the embodiment of free speech and freedom of expression…It was everything that America stood for all wrapped up in a messy, but deep package.”

Central banks are hawkish. Stocks popped higher, anyway.

Last week, despite signs that inflation is slowing, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials emphasized their commitment to tightening monetary policy to lower inflation. Several indicated they anticipate a third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points, reported Craig Torres and Matthew Boesler of Bloomberg.

You may have heard this one: Don’t fight the Fed.

The Fed is the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States. Among other things, the Fed influences monetary conditions in pursuit of price stability and full employment. As we’ve seen recently – with unemployment low and inflation high – the Fed’s job isn’t simple or straightforward.

Markets were tuned to the signals coming from Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

During World War II, United States armed forces often relied on high-powered radio sets to communicate. When determining whether transmissions were garbled by static or obscured by the sounds of battle, the sender would ask, “Do you read me?” If communications were easily understood, the answer was, “Loud and clear.”

Is this a bear market rally or a new bull market?

Investment professionals are in the middle of a heated debate. Since mid-June, United States stock markets have moved higher, regaining about $7 trillion as many investors who had sold shares during the first half of the year began buying again, reported Lu Wang of Bloomberg. The debate is about whether the stock market is in the midst of a bear market rally or a new bull market.

Rally caps were waving.

In recent weeks, investors have embraced the idea that economic data will persuade the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes. Last week’s inflation data fanned their enthusiasm.

The strength of the United States economy continues to surprise.

If you have ever been camping, you may have banked your campfire by covering the hot coals with ash. It’s a process that keeps the coals burning low so the fire can be easily rekindled. The U.S. Federal Reserve has been trying to bank the fire of U.S. economic growth – and it’s proving to be challenging.

Investors thought they heard a dovish note from the Federal Reserve and markets rallied.

Last week, we learned from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that economic growth in the United States slowed for the second consecutive quarter.

A lot of people are worried that a recession may be in our future. Some think it may already be here.

Unemployment is low (3.6 percent), and inflation is high (9.1 percent). Both tend to occur when an economy is experiencing strong growth. That makes it difficult to believe the United States is in a recession, but some data is pointing that way.

Nobody is happy, but Americans are feeling more optimistic…

Rising inflation is a bit like a child throwing a temper tantrum in the grocery store. The red-faced parent, in this case the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), tries to calm the child…

The first six months of 2022 have earned a place in history books.

2022 is likely to become part of the lore passed from generation to generation. Stories will be told about this bear market, as well as the remarkable political and social events that have occurred in the United States and elsewhere. Here is a brief look back at the last three months.

Last week, bad news was good news.

Consumers were feeling blue in June, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

The fight against inflation intensified.

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a message that it is serious about fighting inflation.

Inflation is proving to be far more tenacious than markets had hoped.

The idea that inflation peaked in March was put to rest last week when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation accelerated in May.

How strong is the United States economy?

That’s the question investors were mulling after last week’s jobs report…

Investors reassessed and markets bounced.

Last week, major U.S. stock indices moved higher for the first time in weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.2 percent, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 6.6 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 6.9 percent, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.

On the fear and greed cycle…

One of the most challenging times for investors is a market downturn. Whether markets are experiencing a correction or a bear market, it’s really disturbing to watch the value of your savings and investments decline.

On the survival series “Alone,” the tension ratchets higher whenever participants encounter bears. Some participants live warily alongside bears, while others tap out. A similar thing happens among investors when they encounter a bear market.

There is a lot of uncertainty in financial markets – and markets hate uncertainty.

In recent weeks, economic and financial market data have been telling different stories – and that makes it tough for investors to know where the United States economy is headed.….

Correction and contraction….

Investing during 2022 has been like running a forest trail and having unexpected obstacles appear every so often – a fallen tree, a swarm of biting flies, a bear with cubs – you get the idea…

The Federal Reserve’s Ice Bucket Challenge…

Remember a few years ago when people raised money for charity by challenging others to pour buckets of icy water over their heads?

Here’s a riddle:

How can inflation be 8.5 percent and 6.5 percent at the same time?

The first quarter of 2022 was jam-packed with volatility-inducing events: rising inflation, war in Ukraine, rising interest rates, sanctions on Russia, and a new COVID-19 outbreak in China.

Checking in on the Federal Reserve.

Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it…

Markets were reassured by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s actions last week.

Investor optimism is quite low.

In just two weeks, the war in Ukraine has changed the status of 1.3 million people – approximately the number of people who live in Philadelphia or Phoenix…

The world is adapting to a changing reality.

As the war in Ukraine intensified last week, financial markets grappled with uncertainty.

Last week, Russia invaded Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision ignited the biggest military conflict in Europe since World War II.

Investors’ appetite for risk diminished as the Russian threat to Ukraine intensified.

Volatility was high last week as investors guessed and second-guessed how markets would react if Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions were imposed on Russia…

Why did stock markets in the United States finish the week lower?

A rosy view through the rearview mirror.

To say that economists did not have great expectations for the January employment report might be understating their position.

Last week, the January stock market decline was interrupted by a Friday afternoon rally.

When is a barometer not a barometer?

It’s widely recognized that people do not make perfect financial decisions. In fact, many investors rely on mental shortcuts when asked to make complex decisions.

Is the economy doing well, or not?

If you skimmed the headlines last week, you may have seen that retail sales – the purchases we make from stores in-person or online – declined 1.9 percent in December.

Here’s a little story about a group called the Fed…

In the 1950’s, then Fed Chair William McChesney Martin described the Federal Reserve as “the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”

2021 was a fizzing mints-in-soda kind of year.

Everything seemed to shoot higher – from COVID-19 cases and vaccinations to economic growth and global stock markets.

COVID-19 strikes again.

Coronavirus cases have been on the rise in Europe, climbing from about 700,000 new cases a week in September to 2.6 million a week in November.

The road to recovery is slow and bumpy.

Last week, we learned that economic growth slowed in the third quarter as a new wave of COVID-19 surged across the United States, reported The Bureau of Economic Analysis

Central banks have a lot of influence on investors, markets, and economies.

“Raise your words, not your voice. It is rain that grows flowers, not thunder,” advised the Persian poet Rumi.

Shortest ever.

Last week, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) finally announced the official dates for the recession that occurred in 2020.

What begins with the letter “I”?

Infrastructure is essential and sometimes taken for granted. Pipes carry drinking water to our homes, offices, and healthcare facilities, and carry away sewage and wastewater.

Are we at a tipping point? One side effect of the pandemic was a collapse in demand for oil, which led to “the largest revision to the value of the oil industry’s assets in at least a decade,” reported Collin Eaton and Sarah McFarlane of The Wall Street Journal.

It’s Spring and economic recovery is in the air. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the U.S. economy grew at a 6.4 percent annualized rate for the first three months of 2021.

Last week, unemployment claims were looking good and consumers were feeling good. The number of Americans applying for first-time unemployment benefits declined.

Students of financial markets may have noted a historically unusual event last week. On Thursday, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes briefly matched the dividend yield for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index.

They say people watching the same event often see different things. That seems to have been the case last week when share prices of a few companies experienced tremendous volatility.

Last week was the cherry on top of a turbulent year for investors. After the $900 billion fiscal stimulus bill was signed on Sunday, major U.S. stock indices moved higher.

Hello and Happy New Year. Once in a very great while, there comes a year in the economy and the markets that serves as a tutorial—in effect, a master class in the principles of successful long-term, goal-focused investing.

Last week, vaccine optimism immunized investors against signs of economic weakness.

Last week, financial markets and economic data told very different stories. Reviewing economic data is a bit like looking in a rearview mirror. Typically, it offers information about what is behind us.

For four weeks, the U.S. stock market has sparked and sputtered like a campfire in light rain. Today, pandemic-driven demand is providing fuel for the investors. The need for certain types of products and services has accelerated and innovation is creating new opportunities.

The stock market rallies like it’s 1986. August has been a good month for stock investors. At the end of last week, the S&P 500 Index was up 6.8 percent for the month. The Index is poised to deliver its best returns for the month since 1986, when it gained 7.1 percent, reported Financial Times.

Last week delivered a mixed bag of financial and economic news. As many expected, the U.S. economy did not fare well during the second quarter. COVID-19 lockdowns and business closings caused productivity to fall by one-third