Market Commentaries

The strength of the United States economy continues to surprise.

If you have ever been camping, you may have banked your campfire by covering the hot coals with ash. It’s a process that keeps the coals burning low so the fire can be easily rekindled. The U.S. Federal Reserve has been trying to bank the fire of U.S. economic growth – and it’s proving to be challenging.

Investors thought they heard a dovish note from the Federal Reserve and markets rallied.

Last week, we learned from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that economic growth in the United States slowed for the second consecutive quarter.

A lot of people are worried that a recession may be in our future. Some think it may already be here.

Unemployment is low (3.6 percent), and inflation is high (9.1 percent). Both tend to occur when an economy is experiencing strong growth. That makes it difficult to believe the United States is in a recession, but some data is pointing that way.

Nobody is happy, but Americans are feeling more optimistic…

Rising inflation is a bit like a child throwing a temper tantrum in the grocery store. The red-faced parent, in this case the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), tries to calm the child…

The first six months of 2022 have earned a place in history books.

2022 is likely to become part of the lore passed from generation to generation. Stories will be told about this bear market, as well as the remarkable political and social events that have occurred in the United States and elsewhere. Here is a brief look back at the last three months.

Last week, bad news was good news.

Consumers were feeling blue in June, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

The fight against inflation intensified.

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a message that it is serious about fighting inflation.

Inflation is proving to be far more tenacious than markets had hoped.

The idea that inflation peaked in March was put to rest last week when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation accelerated in May.

How strong is the United States economy?

That’s the question investors were mulling after last week’s jobs report…

Investors reassessed and markets bounced.

Last week, major U.S. stock indices moved higher for the first time in weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.2 percent, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 6.6 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 6.9 percent, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.

On the fear and greed cycle…

One of the most challenging times for investors is a market downturn. Whether markets are experiencing a correction or a bear market, it’s really disturbing to watch the value of your savings and investments decline.

On the survival series “Alone,” the tension ratchets higher whenever participants encounter bears. Some participants live warily alongside bears, while others tap out. A similar thing happens among investors when they encounter a bear market.

There is a lot of uncertainty in financial markets – and markets hate uncertainty.

In recent weeks, economic and financial market data have been telling different stories – and that makes it tough for investors to know where the United States economy is headed.….

Correction and contraction….

Investing during 2022 has been like running a forest trail and having unexpected obstacles appear every so often – a fallen tree, a swarm of biting flies, a bear with cubs – you get the idea…

The Federal Reserve’s Ice Bucket Challenge…

Remember a few years ago when people raised money for charity by challenging others to pour buckets of icy water over their heads?

Here’s a riddle:

How can inflation be 8.5 percent and 6.5 percent at the same time?

The first quarter of 2022 was jam-packed with volatility-inducing events: rising inflation, war in Ukraine, rising interest rates, sanctions on Russia, and a new COVID-19 outbreak in China.

Checking in on the Federal Reserve.

Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it…

Markets were reassured by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s actions last week.

Investor optimism is quite low.

In just two weeks, the war in Ukraine has changed the status of 1.3 million people – approximately the number of people who live in Philadelphia or Phoenix…

The world is adapting to a changing reality.

As the war in Ukraine intensified last week, financial markets grappled with uncertainty.

Last week, Russia invaded Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision ignited the biggest military conflict in Europe since World War II.

Investors’ appetite for risk diminished as the Russian threat to Ukraine intensified.

Volatility was high last week as investors guessed and second-guessed how markets would react if Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions were imposed on Russia…

Why did stock markets in the United States finish the week lower?

A rosy view through the rearview mirror.

To say that economists did not have great expectations for the January employment report might be understating their position.

Last week, the January stock market decline was interrupted by a Friday afternoon rally.

When is a barometer not a barometer?

It’s widely recognized that people do not make perfect financial decisions. In fact, many investors rely on mental shortcuts when asked to make complex decisions.

Is the economy doing well, or not?

If you skimmed the headlines last week, you may have seen that retail sales – the purchases we make from stores in-person or online – declined 1.9 percent in December.

Here’s a little story about a group called the Fed…

In the 1950’s, then Fed Chair William McChesney Martin described the Federal Reserve as “the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”

2021 was a fizzing mints-in-soda kind of year.

Everything seemed to shoot higher – from COVID-19 cases and vaccinations to economic growth and global stock markets.

COVID-19 strikes again.

Coronavirus cases have been on the rise in Europe, climbing from about 700,000 new cases a week in September to 2.6 million a week in November.

The road to recovery is slow and bumpy.

Last week, we learned that economic growth slowed in the third quarter as a new wave of COVID-19 surged across the United States, reported The Bureau of Economic Analysis

The news is buzzing! After months of anticipation, the Democrats’ tax plan has arrived.

Central banks have a lot of influence on investors, markets, and economies.

“Raise your words, not your voice. It is rain that grows flowers, not thunder,” advised the Persian poet Rumi.

Shortest ever.

Last week, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) finally announced the official dates for the recession that occurred in 2020.

What begins with the letter “I”?

Infrastructure is essential and sometimes taken for granted. Pipes carry drinking water to our homes, offices, and healthcare facilities, and carry away sewage and wastewater.

Are we at a tipping point? One side effect of the pandemic was a collapse in demand for oil, which led to “the largest revision to the value of the oil industry’s assets in at least a decade,” reported Collin Eaton and Sarah McFarlane of The Wall Street Journal.

It’s Spring and economic recovery is in the air. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the U.S. economy grew at a 6.4 percent annualized rate for the first three months of 2021.

Last week, unemployment claims were looking good and consumers were feeling good. The number of Americans applying for first-time unemployment benefits declined.

Students of financial markets may have noted a historically unusual event last week. On Thursday, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes briefly matched the dividend yield for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index.

They say people watching the same event often see different things. That seems to have been the case last week when share prices of a few companies experienced tremendous volatility.

Last week was the cherry on top of a turbulent year for investors. After the $900 billion fiscal stimulus bill was signed on Sunday, major U.S. stock indices moved higher.

At the close of 2020, Congress passed a second bill to address the challenges of the coronavirus, and President Trump signed it into law.

Hello and Happy New Year. Once in a very great while, there comes a year in the economy and the markets that serves as a tutorial—in effect, a master class in the principles of successful long-term, goal-focused investing.

Last week, vaccine optimism immunized investors against signs of economic weakness.

Last week, financial markets and economic data told very different stories. Reviewing economic data is a bit like looking in a rearview mirror. Typically, it offers information about what is behind us.

For four weeks, the U.S. stock market has sparked and sputtered like a campfire in light rain. Today, pandemic-driven demand is providing fuel for the investors. The need for certain types of products and services has accelerated and innovation is creating new opportunities.

The stock market rallies like it’s 1986. August has been a good month for stock investors. At the end of last week, the S&P 500 Index was up 6.8 percent for the month. The Index is poised to deliver its best returns for the month since 1986, when it gained 7.1 percent, reported Financial Times.

Last week delivered a mixed bag of financial and economic news. As many expected, the U.S. economy did not fare well during the second quarter. COVID-19 lockdowns and business closings caused productivity to fall by one-third