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WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | NOVEMBER 3, 2022
Some companies are doing better than others – a lot better.
It’s earnings season; the time when companies share how well they performed during the previous quarter. Earnings reports are important because they provide information about a company’s financial health. Shareholders pay particular attention to earnings, which are company profits after expenses have been subtracted.
At the end of last week, slightly more than half of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index had reported results for the third quarter of 2022. The blended earnings growth rate* for the S&P 500 was 4.1 percent, year-over-year, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv.
The worst performing sector was communication services, which includes some big technology names. Earnings for the sector were down 20.9 percent for the third quarter. At the other end of the spectrum was the energy sector with year-over-year earnings growth of about 136 percent. The sector was led by big oil companies, some of which posted record profits, reported Sabrina Valle and Ron Bousso of Reuters.
The weaker performance of technology companies helps explain why the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), an index that includes some of the nation’s large blue-chip companies, has outperformed the Nasdaq Composite Index, which reflects the performance of the technology sector, recently, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.
“And what a four weeks it has been. The Dow has jumped 14.4% in October and is on pace for its best month since January 1976, when the blue-chip benchmark surged 14.41%. The other indexes have fallen short of those gains: The Russell 2000…has climbed 11%, the S&P 500 has gained 8.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite has risen a paltry 5%.”
Investors were also encouraged by last week’s economic data. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), which is the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, “…increased 4.2 percent [in the third quarter], compared with an increase of 7.3 percent [in the second quarter]. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.5 percent [in the third quarter], compared with an increase of 4.7 percent [in the second quarter].”
Investors hope evidence that price increases are not accelerating will cause the Fed to reevaluate the pace of rate hikes, reported Jacob Sonenshine and Jack Denton of Barron’s.
While recent stock market gains have been a respite for investors, corporate earnings are not as strong as the top line numbers suggest. When the energy sector is excluded, the blended corporate earnings rate was down 3.5 percent for the third quarter.
Last week, major U.S. stock indices rose, and yields for many maturities of U.S. Treasury moved lower.
*The blended rate combines actual earnings/profits for companies that have reported with consensus estimates for companies that haven’t yet reported.
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Sources:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070615/what-difference-between-earnings-and-profit.asp
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/TRPR_82201_20221028.pdf
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/wrapup-global-oil-giants-rake-massive-profits-third-quarter-2022-10-28/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-dot-com-bubble-51667004324?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/10-31-22_Barrons_Shades%20of%20the%20Dot%20Com%20Bust_4.pdf)
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-10/gdp3q22_adv.pdf [See Table 4]
https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-102822/card/stocks-drop-after-brutal-week-for-big-tech-earnings-BpI0odeClhgz6Ovfw41T (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/10-31_22_Barrons_Stocks%20Rallied%20After%20a%20Brutal%20Week%20for%20Tech%20Earnings_6.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202210
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/what-is-economics/
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/john_kenneth_galbraith_105472?src=t_economics
https://www.atlantafed.org/economy-matters/quiz/2018/0621-terms-and-conditions (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/10-31-22_Federal%20Reserve%20Bank%20of%20Atlanta_11.pdf)
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2012/05/01/wait-is-saving-good-or-bad-the-paradox-of-thrift/
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/causes-of-inflation-3-real-reasons-for-rising-prices-3306094
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2077848
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Securities and advisory services offered through EWA LLC dba Equilibrium Wealth Advisors (a SEC Registered Investment Advisor).
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
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* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
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