March 31, 2022

Weekly Market Commentary | March 31, 2022

Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it…

In early March, almost two-thirds of Americans who participated in a Nationwide Retirement Institute survey said the Federal Reserve (Fed) should take more aggressive action on inflation. The next week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did just that. It increased the target range for the Federal funds rate by a quarter point to 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent.

When rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive. The change often reduces demand and pushes prices – and inflation – lower. Last week, the Fed rate hike began to affect consumers and investors in a variety of ways. We saw:

  • A sharp increase in Treasury rates. Last week, the 2-year UST rate rose from 1.97 percent to 2.30 percent. When bond rates rise, bond prices fall, and that can make bonds less attractive to investors. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s reported:
“With government bonds on pace for their worst year since 1949, investors are looking for other places to put their money – and they may have settled on stocks. In recent weeks, stock and bond prices have stopped moving in the same direction…”
  • Demand for home loans and refinancing drop. Last Friday, the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 4.95 percent. That’s 1.64 percent higher than it was a year ago, reported Diana Olick of CNBC.
One consequence of higher rates is likely to be lower demand for homes. Last week, applications for mortgages were down 12 percent from the prior year, and the number of home refinancing applications dropped, too.
  • The cost of carrying credit card debt increases. Last week, the average credit card rate rose from 16.17 percent to 16.25 percent, according to Kelly Dilworth of CreditCards.com. That means carrying a balance is more costly – and that expense is likely to continue to increase every time the Fed raises rates.

Currently, the FOMC expects to raise the target rate range at each of its six meetings this year. If rates increase by a quarter point each time, rates could be significantly higher by the end of 2022, reported Evie Liu of Barron’s.

Last week, major U.S. stock indices gained, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.

Sources:

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