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MARKET COMMENTARY | February 24, 2025
A difference of opinion.
Broadly speaking, there are two types of investors: individual investors and institutional investors.
Individual investors buy and sell investments to grow their personal wealth. This group of investors often works with financial advisors as they pursue their financial goals. Individual investors tend to invest smaller amounts of money than institutional investors do.
For the last three weeks, sentiment among individual investors has been leaning bearish. Last week, 40.5 percent of investors in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey were feeling pessimistic about the direction of stocks over the next six months. That was an improvement from the prior week’s reading when 47.3 percent of participants were bearish. Here’s what the survey has found since the week of January 20.
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is considered a contrarian indicator, meaning that people look at the survey to identify potential turning points in the market. In some instances, when investors have been pessimistic, the market has moved higher, and vice versa, reported Edward Harrison of Bloomberg.
Institutional investors are very large investors, such as banks, mutual funds, exchange traded funds, college endowments, state pensions, insurance companies, and other organizations that buy and sell investments, usually in very large volumes, to meet the goals of the group for whom they’re investing.
Currently, institutional investors are quite bullish. According to survey results released last week by Bank of America (BofA), many institutional investors are fully invested and holding very little cash. “Global stocks have become the most popular asset class with [institutional] investors, who are showing the biggest willingness to take risk in 15 years,” reported Sagarika Jaisinghani of Bloomberg. “About 89 [percent] of respondents in the BofA survey said US equities were overvalued, the most since at least April 2001. The faith in so-called U.S. exceptionalism — where investors bet mainly on American financial markets — has also faltered as investors rotate into European stocks.”
Last week, major U.S. stock indices moved lower on discouraging economic data and inflation concerns, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury moved lower over the week.
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The beautiful spring came; and when Nature resumes her loveliness, the human soul is apt to revive also.”
– Harriet Ann Jacobs, Author
Sources:
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/02-24-25-AAII%20Sentiment%20Survey_1.pdf
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-02-19/are-retail-investors-too-bearish-probably-not?srnd=undefined or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/02-24-25-Investors%20Too%20Bearish_3.pdf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-18/investors-are-the-most-risk-on-in-15-years-bofa-survey-shows or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/02-24-25-BofA%20Survey%20Shows_4.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-022125?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/02-24-25-Barrons-Stock%20Market%20News_5.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/market-data
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202502
https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2025-02-16-arctic-blast-temperature-record-week-ahead
https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/iditarod-forced-to-move-again-due-to-lack-of-alaska-snow/1746306
https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2024-01-12-record-coldest-temperatures-in-united-states#
https://www.weather.gov/dlh/January21_FrigidMorningLowTemperatures#
https://www.waaytv.com/news/alabama/remembering-the-deadly-impact-of-the-1974-tornado-super-outbreak-in-north-alabama/article_e2fae1e8-f116-11ee-9158-2f139a26c420.html#
https://www.history.com/news/worlds-most-catastrophic-floods-in-photos
https://www.12news.com/article/weather/dust-storm-haboob-rolled-through-phoenix-on-july-5-2011/75-f48e08d6-d33f-4992-b40f-c9b6bdc17bd3
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/winter-warmup-weather-whiplash-us
https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/life/g3372/spring-quotes/
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Important Disclosures:
Securities and advisory services offered through EWA LLC dba Equilibrium Wealth Advisors (a SEC Registered Investment Advisor).
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.