May 19, 2022

Weekly Market Commentary | May 19, 2022

On the survival series “Alone,” the tension ratchets higher whenever participants encounter bears. Some participants live warily alongside bears, while others tap out. A similar thing happens among investors when they encounter a bear market.

What is a bear market?

People define bear markets in different ways. Some people say a share price decline of 20 percent is bear market territory. Last week, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index was down 19.6 percent before Friday’s rally, according to Ben Levisohn of Barron’s, and the Nasdaq Composite was already down more than 20 percent.

Other people say a bear market occurs when more investors are bearish than bullish. That’s certainly the case today. The Association of Independent Investors’ Consumer Sentiment Index found 49 percent of investors were bearish and 24 percent were bullish last week. Other sentiment indicators, including the Consensus Bullish Sentiment Index cited by Barron’s, also show that investors and investment professionals are feeling more bearish than bullish.

So, it’s safe to say we’re either in a bear market or quite close to one.
The decisions investors make today can affect long-term outcomes

While it is never comfortable to watch the value of savings and investments drop, as they do during a bear market, it’s important to remember that the decisions you make today can have a significant effect on the value of your portfolio over the long-term. During bear markets, investors may choose to:

  1. Sell. The thinking behind selling is usually something like this: If I sell, I will cut my losses and preserve what I have. These investors are willing accept a loss of principal, which may hurt their ability to reach long-term financial goal.
  1. Stay invested. Investors who remain invested recognize that a market decline is not the same as a loss of principal. By remaining invested, they create an opportunity to regain lost value should the market change direction.
  1. Look for opportunities. Some investors recognize that bear markets often create buying opportunities. These investors work with their advisors to identify ways to position for gains should the market recover. The goal of investing, after all, is to buy low and sell high.

A few words of wisdom

If you’re feeling uncertain, this is a good time to revisit the words of Randall Forsyth and Vito Racanelli of Barron’s. In 2008, they wrote, “The good news is that once the decline reaches that arbitrary 20% mark, based on history, the market has suffered most of its losses. The bad news is that the decline typically drags on for some time, and time may be the worst enemy…as the decline wears down investors’ psyches, they tend to bail out at the market’s nadir, when things look bleakest – and when the greatest opportunities present themselves.”

Last week, major U.S. stock indices finished lower. Rates on U.S. Treasuries moved lower, too, as risk-averse investors moved assets into Treasury bonds, reported Samantha Subin and Vicky McKeever of CNBC.

Best regards,
EWA, LLC

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Sources:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-bear-market-history-51652488484?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/05-16-22_Barrons_The%20Stock%20Market%20Nearly%20Entered%20a%20Bear%20Market_2.pdf)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=%5EIXIC [See historic data]
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
https://barrons-nj.newsmemory.com (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/05-16-22_Barrons_Investor%20Sentiment%20Readings_5.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB121512473043028031 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/05-16-22_Barrons_The%20Bears%20Back_6.pdf)
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/us-bonds-treasury-yields-fall-following-hot-inflation-data.html
https://www.ft.com/content/1fd96fc3-4c44-3e7d-99cb-2f9c797752cd (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/05-16-22_Financial%20Times_The%20Death%20of%20Equities%20Again_8.pdf)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC [See historic data]
https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1987
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia/download-data?mod=mw_quote_tab [See historic data]
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^DJI?p=^DJI&.tsrc=fin-srch [See historic data]
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dotcom-bubble.asp#citation-2
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/subprime-market-2008.asp
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html

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Securities and advisory services offered through EWA LLC dba Equilibrium Wealth Advisors (a SEC Registered Investment Advisor).
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
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* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
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