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WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | JULY 7, 2022
The first six months of 2022 have earned a place in history books.
2022 is likely to become part of the lore passed from generation to generation. Stories will be told about this bear market, as well as the remarkable political and social events that have occurred in the United States and elsewhere. Here is a brief look back at the last three months.
More specifically, when a three-month Treasury bill yields more than a 10-year Treasury note a recession is likely in the following six to 18 months, according to a study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. At the end of June, the three-month Treasury yielded 1.72 percent and 10-year Treasury yielded 2.98 percent. In other words, the yield curve was not inverted.
Markets are likely to remain volatile until investors are confident the U.S. has avoided a recession, and no one is sure that will be the case.
Last week, major U.S. indices rallied late in the week, but finished lower overall, according to Barron’s. The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries moved lower.
Sources:
https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/27/inflation-to-be-elevated-for-longer-on-war-demand-job-markets/
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/archive/differences-between-the-consumer-price-index-and-the-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index.pdf
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2022
https://www.npr.org/2022/06/15/1105026915/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2022
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-sp500-1970-outlook-51656620380?mod=article_inline (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/07-05-22_Barrons_The%20S&P%20500%20Had%20Its%20Worst%20First%20Half%20Since%201970_7.pdf)
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=70154
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/07-05-22_Barrons_Data_11.pdf)
https://global.nielsen.com/news-center/2022/nielsens-state-of-play-report-reveals-that-streaming-is-the-future-but-consumers-are-currently-overwhelmed-by-choice/ (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/07-05-22_Nielsen_State%20of%20Play_12.pdf)
https://news.samsung.com/uk/telly-mad-brits-watch-a-staggering-1344-hours-of-tv-a-year-the-equivalent-of-56-days-according-to-new-research
https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/report/2022/state-of-play/?_ga=2.38439399.590508102.1656773017-1155648589.1656773017&_gl=1*1c9q358*_ga*MTE1NTY0ODU4OS4xNjU2NzczMDE3*_ga_9XWXXSN79Z*MTY1Njc3MzAxNi4xLjAuMTY1Njc3MzAxNi4w [Download report or see the pdf]
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/john_henrik_clarke_532826
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