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MARKET COMMENTARY | JUNE 29, 2023
The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Express is traveling fast.
Investors are enthusiastic about AI. Late last year, an AI research lab introduced a chatbot that could answer questions – and people were enthralled. Within two months of its introduction, more than 100 million people had engaged with the technology, reported David Curry of Business of Apps. It wasn’t long before AI platforms that could generate images and audio, and help with coding were released.
It’s difficult to know whether investor enthusiasm influenced companies, but more firms mentioned artificial intelligence on recent quarterly earnings calls than ever before. AI mentions were up 77 percent during fourth quarter calls (after the chatbot was released) and reached an all-time high on the most recent round of calls, reported Jennifer Ryan of Bloomberg.
Between March 15 and May 25, AI was mentioned on the earnings calls of 110 companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index, reported John Butters of FactSet. The sectors where AI was mentioned the most were:
Recent stock market gains have been attributable, primarily, to seven large stocks, five of which are in the IT and communication services sectors. Last week, as major U.S. stock indices gave back some gains, three of the companies finished the week higher and two outperformed the index, reported Al Root of Barron’s.
U.S. stocks dropped last week largely because investors didn’t like what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had to say. He suggested there could be more rate hikes this year, and that revived recession concerns, reported Stephen Culp of Reuters. Yields on most U.S. Treasuries finished the week unchanged or higher.
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT AI’s LIMITATIONS? As you read about AI, you are likely to encounter some confusing terminology. The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) explained that generative AI is “a technology that can create content, including text, images, audio, or video, when prompted by a user. Generative AI systems create responses using algorithms that are trained often on open-source information, such as text and images from the internet. However, generative AI systems are not cognitive and lack human judgment.”
The last sentence in the GAO’s definition is quite important. See what you know about AI’s limitations by taking this brief quiz.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“It is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be.”
—Isaac Asimov, biochemistry professor and author
Answers: 1) b; 2) a; 3) c; 4) b
Sources:
Sources:
https://www.businessofapps.com/data/chatgpt-statistics/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-05/ai-scores-as-hot-topic-on-earnings-calls-as-interest-deepens#xj4y7vzkg (or go to https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-05/ai-scores-as-hot-topic-on-earnings-calls-as-interest-deepens#xj4y7vzkg)
https://insight.factset.com/highest-number-of-sp-500-companies-citing-ai-on-q1-earnings-calls-in-over-10-years
https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-stocks-are-a-long-way-from-a-bubble-a1a274d4?mod=hp_LEAD_3 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/06-26-23_Barrons_AI%20Stocks%20Are%20a%20Long%20Way%20from%20Bubble%20Territory_4.pdf)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-fall-powells-hawkish-stance-sours-market-mood-2023-06-23/
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202306
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106782
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/isaac_asimov_124394
https://www.aiweirdness.com/try-these-neural-network-generated-17-08-06/?ref=aiweirdness.com
https://www.aiweirdness.com/ai-recipes-are-bad-and-a-proposal-20-01-31/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-22/chatgpt-phony-legal-filing-case-gets-lawyers-a-5-000-fine
https://www.rd.com/article/funny-ai-mistakes/ (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/06-26-23_Bloomberg_Phony%20ChatGPT%20Brief%20Leads%20to%20Fine_12.pdfO
https://www.essentiallysports.com/soccer-football-news-ai-automated-camera-backfires-on-scottish-soccer-club-as-technology-mistakes-referees-head-for-soccer-ball/
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