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WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | FEBRUARY 2, 2023
The vicious cycle of inflation.
Last week, we learned that pay increases at central banks in many parts of the world won’t keep pace with inflation. As a result, their employees may not be able to maintain the standards of living they had before inflation began rising. For example, at the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) the maximum pay increase was 5.1 percent for 2022. That’s significantly below inflation which averaged 8 percent last year, reported Jana Randow and Enda Curran of Bloomberg.
It’s a similar story elsewhere in the world. Inflation in the Eurozone averaged 10.6 percent in 2022, yet the average salary increase at the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of France was 4.0 percent. Germany’s Bundesbank offered a 1.8 percent raise. In the United Kingdom, where inflation was 9.1 percent on average last year the Bank of England offered a 4.5 percent annual pay increase.
Central banks have a reason for not raising pay enough to cover price increases. It’s called the wage-price spiral. The Richmond Federal Reserve explained it like this:
“In a wage-price spiral, inflation is fed by a vicious cycle where, as the cost of living rises, workers demand higher wages to pay their bills, leading firms to increase prices even further to cover labor costs.”
Since central banks are trying to reduce inflation, they want to avoid a wage-price spiral. Consequently, giving employees raises that don’t keep pace with inflation means that central banks are practicing what they preach.
Understandably, central bank employees are not happy about it. In January, a spokesperson for the ECB’s trade union told Bloomberg’s Alexander Weber, “‘With inflation in Germany and the euro area likely around 8.5% this year, it means a substantial loss in purchasing power.’”
Last week, data suggested that central banks’ efforts to push inflation lower are working. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, which is one of the Fed’s preferred measures for inflation, dropped from 5.5 percent in November 2022 to 5.0 percent in December. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, fell from 4.7 percent year-over-year to 4.4 percent over the same period.
Investors were enthusiastic about the progress on inflation and major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher. The yield on the one-year U.S. Treasury ended the week at 4.68 percent.
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Sources:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/fed-ecb-pay-deals-how-central-banks-are-fighting-inflation-at-home (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/01-30-23_Bloomberg_Global%20Central%20Banks%20Preaching%20on%20Pay%20Are%20Enforcing%20Squeeze%20Too_1.pdf)
https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2022/mm_11_15_22
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-07/ecb-staff-union-not-happy-with-pay-hike-below-record-inflation (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/01-30-23_Bloomberg_ECB%20Staff%20Union%20Not%20Happy%20With%20Pay%20Hike%20Below%20Record%20Inflation_3.pdf)
https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2022 [see table]
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/01-30-23_Barrons_Data_5.pdf)
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202301
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/why-life-expectancy-in-the-us-is-falling-202210202835
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/may/07/morgan-levine-only-10-30-of-our-lifespan-is-estimated-to-be-due-to-genetics
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-01-25/anti-aging-techniques-taken-to-extreme-by-bryan-johnson (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/01-30-23_Businessweek_How%20to%20Be%2018%20Again%20For%20Only%202%20Million%20a%20Year_9.pdf)
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/life-and-death
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