April 13, 2023

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | APRIL 13, 2023

Ambiguous images.

Some illustrations are optical illusions. When two people view the picture, they may see completely different images. A good example is Rubin’s Vase. One viewer may see a vase, while another sees two faces.

Current economic conditions can be interpreted in different ways, too. Recent economic data and a possible credit crunch, resulting from upheaval in the banking sector, suggest growth is slowing. After viewing the data, some say we’re heading for a soft landing, and others say a recession is coming. Here is the recent data:

  • Consumer spending. This is the main driver of economic growth in the United States. While Americans are still buying, the pace of spending slowed in February, according to a late-March report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Less spending means lower demand for goods and services – and that effects production.
  • Production of goods and services. Last week, the Institute for Supply Management reported that activity in the manufacturing sector – automakers, food producers, pharmaceutical companies and other companies that make products – shrank for the fifth consecutive month. Activity in the services sector – airlines, banks, building maintenance and other companies that provide services – continued to expand but at a slower pace.
  • Employment. The employment report indicated the labor market in the U.S. remained resilient and jobs growth was solid in March. It’s notable that there were fewer job openings and more Americans returned to the workforce. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.5 percent. In addition, average hourly earnings edged higher, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

Randall Forsyth of Barron’s reported, “The solid employment report for March further raises the odds that the U.S. economy is headed for a proverbial soft landing.” Not everyone agrees.

Economist and former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers gives more weight to manufacturing and services data than employment data. He also pointed to the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Banking Conditions Survey, which showed lending volumes declined sharply in March. Summers told Bloomberg’s Wall Street Week with David Westin:

“Employment and unemployment are lagging indicators of what’s happening in the real economy…There is some substantial amount of constriction in credit. If you looked at the forward-looking numbers this week from the PMI surveys, those numbers were quite weak…Recession probabilities are going up at this point. The Fed has a very, very difficult decision ahead of it.”

Major U.S. stock indices finished the week with mixed results, reported Carleton English of Barron’s. In the Treasury market, yields on many shorter-maturity increased, while yields on longer-maturities fell.

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Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubin_vase

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-03/pi0223.pdf

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-46-3-march-2023-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-301787309.html

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-51-2-march-2023-services-ism-report-on-business-301789944.html

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-inflation-economy-jobs-report-rate-hikes-a43e0d82 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/04-10-23_Barrons_A%20Solid%20Jobs%20Report%20Suggests%20One%20More%20Fed%20Rate%20Hike%20in%20May_6.pdf)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-04-07/-the-fed-needs-to-engage-in-some-serious-soul-searching-video [The Fed Needs To Engage In Some Serious Sole Searching. 0:43]

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/bcs/2023/bcs2302

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-s-p-500-fed-dividends-97aaef90?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/04-10-23_Barrons_Tired%20of%20Waiting%20for%20the%20Fed%20to%20Pivot_9.pdf)

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2023

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-interest-rates-investing-mantras-51662006600 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2023/04-10-23_Barrons_The%20Fed%20is%20Hawkish_11.pdf)

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Monetary-Policy

https://www.yahoo.com/video/don-t-fight-fed-wall-165947003.html

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230322.pdf (Figure 2)

https://madison.com/uw–madison-2012-spring-commencement-carol-bartz-address/youtube_17568e79-9672-57a7-a13e-f5ff3de2ffaa.html [12:40]

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